This article is devoted to examining the relationship between various demographic features of an electorate (as recorded in the ‘Discover Your Commonwealth Electoral Division dataset published by the ABS for 2019) and the electorate’s TPP vote share for the Australian Labor Party (ALP) in the 2019 election.

Through a few simple graphs we get a sense of which demographic factors are associated with ALP votes, and exactly what these relationship look like. I go through a range of factors:

  • Income
  • Age
  • Engagement
  • Job type
  • Educational attainment
  • Housing tenure
  • Rent and mortgage repayments
  • Family status
  • Ethnic/cultural background

I’ll be going through the data, presenting it primarily via various scatter plots but I’ll also be doing a bit of ‘story telling’; discussing how well the preliminary data appears to cohere with common wisdom about the voting behavior of various demographics. This analysis is NOT rigorous and is really just me thinking out loud so take it with many grains of salt. I do hope, however, that these comments stimulate discussion about the patterns we see here. When I see a commonly asserted relationship to hold I make note of it, when I see it contradicted I try to offer an explanation or offer alternate hypotheses. That said, all that is concrete is the data displayed in the graphs — nothing beyond what is explicitly shown there should be inferred without further investigation. …


This post is an update to the article here:

If you haven’t read it, it may be of use to get some context for this project. Here, I tracked the overall sentiment of comments in the daily r/melbourne Covid discussion threads from the 27th of September to the 23rd of October to get a sense of how feelings had changed as life under lock down continued.

After posting my results, many of you on Reddit informed me that it would be more fruitful to look further back to see how sentiment had evolved over a longer period of time. This is exactly what I have done; I have replicated the analysis performed in yesterday’s post but with comment data from r/melbourne Covid threads beginning on the 5th of July. …


It is quite clear to most in Melbourne that public opinion towards the lock-down has changed over its duration. We notice shifts in both the support for lock-down policy itself and changes in our sentiment towards living under these restrictions. These two phenomenon are not necessarily linked; one can become increasingly frustrated and upset over the realities of living under lock-down without their belief in the effectiveness or the strength of the moral reasoning underpinning lock-down policies changing. Thus, we should distinguish between support for lock-down and sentiment towards life under lock-down.

Opinion polls on preferred premier may give us occasional insights into how attitude has changed with respect to the first question; of support for lock-down policy. We can assume that changes in support for Dan Andrews are due to people agreeing/disagreeing with the lock-down policies of his governments. …


To the frustration of many students, the University of Melbourne does not publish average weighted average marks (WAMs) for the various degree programs offered. In order to remedy this absence and provide students with a sense of their relative standing, I created a survey giving students the opportunity to report their degree type (Arts, Science, etc.), …


What would Australia look like if we moved away from a single-member district, majoritarian electoral rule and adopted a proportional representation (PR) system in the House of Representatives?

In this article I examine what Australia’s Federal Parliament (specifically, the lower house, where government is formed) might have looked like under two different PR systems (D’Hondt and Webster) based on first preference votes in the 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2019 Federal elections. I also examine the disproportionality of both the actual, and hypothetical (party list) PR results in each of these elections based on the Gallagher index. …


I recently wrote an article theorizing what Australian Parliament could look like under PR electoral systems. You can find it here:

This article just contains the (quite shabby) code used to obtain the results featured in the above article. For instance, since I had previously created the functions that assign seats given votes according the D’Hondt and Webster electoral systems, I used this code, which allows for different electoral thresholds. The rest of the script isn’t designed to accommodate non-0 thresholds so this feature is redundant.

The script also contains a function for quantifying disproportionality via the Loosemore-Hanby index. In the main article I only used the Gallagher index since it is a more popular measure and I wanted to keep it simple. …


I’ve recently started a series on various approaches to forecasting the results of elections in the Victorian Legislative Assembly and testing how good of a job they would have done for the 2018 election.

The models tested so far have all been taken from Electoral Calculus (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/)and are essentially deterministic models that attempt to transform statewide polls on voter intention into a concrete prediction of the seats held by different parties (on a TPP basis at least). So far we’ve looked at:

  • The UNS model:
  • The Transition model:

Which had pretty similar performance in terms of predicting the TPP vote share in each seat. Today’s article is about another model used by Electoral Calculus. …

MajorlyUnemployedGrad

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